Much of the northeastern US was choked last summer by thick smoke from wildfires in Canada, which led to New York City worse air quality since the 1960s. Such episodes, once mostly isolated, are becoming more frequent due to the effects of climate change, new research shows.
About 83 million Americans, or 1 in 4, are already exposed each year to air quality classified as “unhealthy” Air Quality Index (AQI), a number that could rise to 125 million people within decades, according to the First Street Foundation, which analyzes climate risks. The unhealthy AQI level, color-coded red, means that outdoor activities can lead to lung failure for some people, including respiratory conditions such as chest pain and coughing.
The country's worsening air quality comes after decades of improvements thanks to regulations like the 1970s Clean Air Act, which tightened federal rules on pollutants emitted by factories and cars. But the recent increase in poor air quality could be harder to combat because it is linked to global warming, with warmer temperatures and drought causing more fires to spew smoke, First Street said.
“Additional heart attacks”
At the same time, the rise in poor air quality threatens to reverse the health gains that have followed stricter pollution regulations since the 1960s and harm the U.S. economy, said Jeremy Porter, head of climate impact research at the First Street.
“We're essentially adding extra premature deaths, adding extra heart attacks,” Porter told CBS MoneyWatch. “We lose productivity in economic markets by losing extra days of work in the countryside.”
Already, there is some evidence that people are leaving parts of the country with poorer air quality, contributing to what is effectively a redrawing of the country's map from fires, floods and other effects of climate change.
“We've seen very early statistical signals in our own analysis that people are moving away from smoke coming from wildfires,” Porter said. “The downstream effect of people moving away is that property values start to suffer because the area becomes less desirable. And then as the area becomes less desirable, tax revenue is directly affected because property values go down.”
Residents of California, Oregon and Washington state are seeing the biggest declines in air quality, in part due to wildfires in those areas. In California, air quality today is often in the “purple” and “maroon” levels — considered very healthy to hazardous — which was unheard of about 15 years ago, according to First Street's analysis. At the same time, the number of “green” days, considered healthy, has fallen by a third since 2010.
However, the impact isn't just being felt on the West Coast, according to First Street.
“It's become something that affects the daily lives of people east of the Mississippi River,” Porter noted. In 2022, wildfires in Florida were “so bad that people were asked to move out of their neighborhoods, which is kind of unheard of.”
The number of unhealthy AQI days is likely to increase in the coming decades due to climate change, according to First Street. The worst hit could be the western states, but the eastern states are not immune. Pockets of the Southwest, especially along the Florida-Georgia border, are already seeing an increase in the number of days with unhealthy AQI numbers.
Particles and ozone
Poor air quality is linked to increases in particulate matter and ozone, which are increasing due to changes in the environment, including extreme heat, drought and wildfires. Particles smaller than 2.5 microns in diameter, also called PM2.5, are of particular concern because these tiny specks of pollution can get deep into your lungs, causing a range of health problems.
PM2.5 particles increase due to fires, while 2022 survey found that ground-level ozone is also being depleted by the increasingly destructive flames. Ozone levels can irritate your airways and increase your risk of an asthma attack, among other health problems, according to the Environmental Protection Agency.
Although reversing the amount of air pollution linked to climate change is difficult, at least knowing the risks and how to mitigate them can help, Porter said. First Street has a website called RiskFactor.com where you can enter your address and see flood, fire, wind and heat risks.
People may also need to take steps to protect their health in the face of more days of poor air quality, he added.
“Being able to keep smoke out of your home is very important,” Porter said. “Things like making sure your windows are sealed and something as simple as changing the filter in your HVAC can have a big, big impact on how clean the air inside your home is.”