(NEW YORK) — With several wildfires burning across Canada, including about 40 that remain out of control, forecasters said conditions are stacking up for a repeat of last year's wildfire season, when thick smoke fell across the United States, turning the skies over New York City's orange and its dangerous air quality.
More than 130 fires are now burning across several Canadian provinces, mainly in the western part of the country, according to the Canadian Interagency Wildfire Centre.
Earlier this week, smoke from Canada's wildfires crossed the border into the United States, prompting Minnesota officials to issue the first air quality alert for 2024.
“As of now, it's too hot, too dry. Parts of northern Alberta, northern British Columbia and the Southwest and Northwest Territories are experiencing some significant fires as a result of very, very dry conditions,” Jennifer Smith, national preparedness warning meteorologist for the Met Office of Canada, told ABC News. “These conditions are expected to continue into the spring and summer.”
He said Canada had one of its warmest winters on record with little to no snow in many areas.
Asked if smoke from the wildfires could drift back to the East Coast of the United States, Smith said: “Absolutely.”
“It's absolutely possible,” he continued. “It all depends on whether wildfires develop in those areas, and then you would need the winds to align with the timing of the fires to create that smoke. [drift] south to the United States. So a few things have to come together to make it happen, but it's not impossible.”
Canada experienced its most destructive fire season on record in 2023, when more than 7,100 fires burned more than 42 million hectares of wildland.
Last May and June, smoke from wildfires burning near Halifax, Nova Scotia, on Canada's eastern side, sent plumes of smoke across the border and down the East Coast, blanketing New York and the Tri -State in an orange haze for days, prompting residents to wear face masks outdoors and leaving New York and other metropolises like Detroit with the worst air quality in the world.
“It was an unfortunate combination of events that came together to allow smoke to flow into the United States and be seen and experienced so strongly,” Smith said.
Kristina Dahl, the chief climatologist at the Union for Concern Scientists, a US science advocacy nonprofit, told ABC News that back-to-back years of drought across much of Canada is causing an early start to the wildfire season. He also said many of the fires are being caused by “zombie fires,” which are fires that have never been fully extinguished and have reignited this month with the return of warmer weather.
“These are fires that have smoldering embers during the winter. Rain could help with relief, but if it's dry, you don't completely put out those fires during the season when firefighters get a well-deserved rest,” Dahl said.
Dahl said the lack of rainfall from the extreme drought is also causing dry lightning that sparks wildfires in remote areas that are inaccessible to fire crews.
“It's the same setup as we had last year when we had record-breaking fires across the country,” Dahl said.
Dahl said the difference between last year's fire season and what's happening now is that more fires are burning in the eastern part of the county.
“So far from what I've seen this year, we're still dealing with a wildfire situation on the west side. We're not seeing the level of fires we saw last year in the eastern provinces,” Dahl said. “But it's still early in the fire season, and the forecast for the coming months from the Canadian government has an above-average fire weather risk for much of the country.”
Dahl added, “It remains to be seen what happens with eastern Canada. But whether it's in the west or the east, because of atmospheric circulation patterns, smoke can enter the United States.”
Smith said another “unique weather pattern” that occurred last year was strong winds that fanned the flames and blew smoke across the US.
“Quebec and Ontario see their share of wildfires every summer, but the prevailing wind or the direction the winds usually travel in that part of the country is east or northeast,” Smith said, adding that last year the weather pattern held in place long enough to allow smoke to move south into New York and other parts of the US
Smith said a cooler weather system is moving into parts of Alberta and British Columbia this week and could bring “some precipitation.”
He added, “But with it comes the risk of storms. There is also a chance for gale-force winds which could make things worse.”
One of the largest fires is burning in British Columbia near the town of Fort Nelson, which has been evacuated. That fire, which started Friday, has spread to more than 32 square miles and is also threatening the Fort Nelson Indian Reservation, officials said.
Dahl said the wildfires in Canada are a result of climate change and signal the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, which trap heat and cause global warming.
“What all our climate models show is that the more we warm the planet the worse the fires will get,” Dahl said. “When we think about what we need to do and what we can do to deal with the problem of worsening wildfires, we really have to think with that long-term hat. It will benefit our children and grandchildren if we make these emissions cuts now.”
ABC News' Daniel Manzo and Kenton Gewecke contributed to this report.
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