In 2015, associate professor of political science at Northeastern University Nick Beauchamp predicted that Donald Trump had a 25% chance of winning next year's presidential election.
“People I know who weren't Trump fans would be upset and say, 'That's ridiculous, how can you say that?' Beauchamp recalled, noting that at the time Trump was considered somewhat of a “joke candidate” among the eight Republican and two Democratic candidates.
But Beauchamp's prediction — while warning — was based mostly not on polls but on probabilities. Trump was then leading the Republican primary, so he had a 50/50 chance of winning… and then it would be in a two-way race, so he had a 50/50 chance of winning the presidency again.
A year after the 2024 presidential election, Beauchamp is again looking at the odds more than the polls.
“Presidential polls are usually seen as unpredictable this far in advance,” says Beauchamp. “As you get closer to the election, poll accuracy goes up and error goes down, and right now we're in the zone where the error is the equivalent of flipping a coin.”
Kostas Panagopoulosdistinguished professor of political science at Northeastern, agreed.
“Polls tend to become more accurate as the election approaches, so it makes sense that current polls aren't necessarily determinative of what will happen on Election Day,” says Panagopoulos.
Instead, he says polls should be seen as a “useful snapshot in time”.
“One of the most interesting features of polls is what they suggest about trends or dynamics over time rather than specific poll distributions,” Panagopoulos continues. “And one of the most interesting features of polls is looking at what's going on across multiple polls and how they indicate dynamics, how things might be changing, trends.”
And David Lazer, distinguished professor of political science and computer science, says that “historically, so far, it's just not predictive.”
“Is he telling us zero? “I wouldn't go that far,” Lazer says of the poll. “But it doesn't tell us much.”
Political polling is “as much art as science,” says Panagopoulou, and very he's got has been written for fights between pollsters WHERE he did not predict Trump's victory in 2016 as well as surprises from the 2020 presidential election. In fact, Panagopoulos found evidence that the final 2020 national presidential primary polls were less accurate than any cycle since 1996.
But while Beauchamp isn't paying too much attention to the polls right now, there are some “key elements” he's looking at. The fundamentals — and their caveats — that make 2024 perhaps even more of a coin toss.
“Often the way it works is if you want to make a forecast a year ahead, it's better to use the fundamentals — as they say — than the polls,” says Beauchamp.
The first fundamental?
“Right now, if you're going to make a prediction, the easiest one is that the incumbents usually win,” says Beauchamp. “Although now we have three times in recent memory when the incumbent has lost, if your recent memory goes back to Jimmy Carter.”
Beauchamp says other fundamentals include things like the economy and macroeconomic conditions, gross domestic product numbers, unemployment, consumer sentiment and general truisms like that in midterm elections, the party outside the White House tends to do better .
Of course, there are caveats. For example, a large economy amid economic pessimism, a 2022 “red wave” that explodedand special elections where Democrats have turned out better than expected… perhaps mainly in the struggle for a Seat of the Supreme Court of Wisconsin and overturning the Pennsylvania House.
“The big question is whether these snap elections are predictive,” says Beauchamp. “No one really knows the answer to that, I think.”
Lazer also notes that even these basic principles can change.
“So far ahead, one can look at the structural things, the state of the economy and so on,” says Lazer. “But the economy can change in a year.”
Then there are recent trends that may or may not continue. Will overturning Roe v. Wade continue to mobilize voters? What about the changing demographics of the Republican and Democratic electorates?
Add in other unknowns, like the results of Election Day 2023, and it makes sense that Beauchamp is looking at fundamentals rather than Ipsos or Gallup.
That said, we pretty much know who will be at the top of the ticket charts. And with political polarization trends, are there really that many swing voters? Then what about Cornel West and RFK Jr.?
“I think minds are more set this time than in recent history because this is the first time we've had a rematch in quite some time,” Beauchamp says of the expected showdown between Trump and President Joe Biden. “Because it's a rematch and because everyone knows these two people very well, the polls are more predictive than usual.”
Lazer agrees… to a point.
“Trump and Biden are more known quantities than is typical, so that's the only thing that might suggest it's more predictive,” Lazer says. “But then again, people voted differently in 2020 and they were saying they would vote now.”
Plus, yes, the 2016 national polls missed Trump's victory. but it was only 1 percentage point away from.
“Most polls on election day are very close to what actually happens,” says Panagopoulos. “That's sometimes difficult when the election is so close, or even when the polling data suggests a dead run, but that doesn't make the polls inaccurate — it means that what ends up happening on Election Day can change Election Day for different reasons”.
But Beauchamp says pollsters have made changes in hopes of better accuracy.
“In recent elections they've been much better, even when they get it wrong, as soon as we have an election that's close,” says Beauchamp.
So, with all these unknowns, caveats and trends, what will you do when the latest poll comes out?
Panagopoulos points out a few things that are important to consider when looking at any recent poll.
“Americans consume polling information the way they consume other pieces of political information — selectively or through the lens of their own political biases,” says Panagopoulos. “Not everyone who consumes polling information is a statistician. for most people it's just information they take into account, and people will sometimes completely dismiss polling information if it doesn't match their political views.”
In addition, he says that polling methods differ between businesses, which can be important.
“It's not just a matter of surveying a bunch of voters to see how they feel,” Panagopoulos says. “You not only have to see how people feel, but also who will vote on Election Day.”
So Panagopoulos advises looking at the polls to find trends. so as not to find out who will win.
“Take poll estimates with a grain of salt and focus more on trends than point estimates,” says Panagopoulos. “Polls can be predictive, not necessarily definitive.”
Meanwhile, Beauchamp again thinks against the odds.
“My guess is that the polls aren't that wrong, but that means it's basically a coin toss,” says Beauchamp. “Because the polls say 'who knows?' Both are likely to win.”
And, through it all, Lazer notes that there is no precedent for a potential candidate facing charges in four criminal cases.
“There is likely to be too much weirdness in the American political system in the next year,” says Lazer.
Cyrus Moulton is a reporter for Northeastern Global News. Email him at c.moulton@northeastern.edu. Follow him on X/Twitter @MoultonCyrus.
