CNN
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The unusually warm and dry northeastern and upper midwestern states are projected to be fire hotspots this summer, while historically wildfire-prone western states, including California, have a lower than normal projected fire danger.
ONE summer fire prospect from the National Interagency Fire Center presents an informal picture, with the highest chances for wildfires largely in the northernmost regions of the country. New England states such as Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine, as well as parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and almost all of Michigan – along with areas in Alaska and the Pacific Northwest – also face increased fire danger.
The situation is “pretty unique,” Alan Hepworth, the U.S. Forest Service's Northeast fire analyst, told CNN.
It's been a long time (since) California and the Southwest were green on the map when the Northeast it has turned redHepworth added.
While many factors are driving fire danger this year, the biggest is prolonged drought and a lack of moisture, state and federal fire officials said. Many New England states spent much of last summer in drought and many of the affected states experienced lighter than usual snowfall this winter, followed by a lack of spring rain.
California and other western states, meanwhile, saw an onslaught of atmospheric rivers that led to historical snowball levels, and enjoyed cooler than normal temperatures and continued rainfall. One atmospheric river is a cloud of moisture that helps transport saturated air from the tropics to higher latitudes, bringing unrelenting rain or snow.
Human-caused climate change is fueling the increase in warmer and drier temperatures and making fire seasons longest and most severe across the US, according to multiple studies and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. And while the largest and most destructive wildfires have historically hit the western US, this year's outlook shows that no place in the US is immune to fire.
“Wherever there are forests, there's always the risk of wildfires,” Aaron Weischitel, a professor of forest biometry and modeling at the University of Maine, told CNN.
“I think a lot of people think it's a Western United States issue.”
In April, Rhode Island's largest wildfire since 1942 burning hundreds of acres forests and menacing buildings. It was one of two fires in a week.
“This is very unusual — Rhode Islanders don't deal with fires that last more than a day,” TJ Boudreau, deputy chief of the Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management, Department of Agriculture and Forestry, told CNN. “These two fires that happened together. This is something no one has really come across on government land.”
It's already a busy spring fire season in many northern states. When fire officials in Minnesota made mutual aid calls to fire agencies in Michigan and Wisconsin, they found everyone busy with their own fires. In Massachusetts, more than 820 fires have already burned 1,500 acres, according to Dave Celino, fire chief for the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation. Although it may seem like a small area compared to the wildfires of the West, it is significant in a New England state.
“The number of acres burned — that's well above average for us,” Celino told CNN. “We think this is a transition from the severe drought conditions we saw in 2022. We were well below average in snowfall and precipitation.”
Celino and other fire officials said years of cumulative drought, rising temperatures and reduced winter snowpack are contributing to the problem — stressing forests, inviting pests and drying up fuels that burn more easily.
“We have summers full of drought,” Boudreau said. “Having it once or twice isn't a big deal, but having it four or five times … (the trees) can't cope as well as they would otherwise.”
Insects also make it difficult for trees to survive fires. Forests in parts of Canada and the US are facing spruce worm, which can defoliate and kill tar-laden, softwood trees – making them even more flammable. Other insects, including tent caterpillars and beetles, can also chew on tree leaves or bore into the wood, making them more vulnerable.
Weiskittel, the University of Maine professor, said climate change and milder winters in the Northeast are contributing to an influx of pests — as winters aren't always cold enough to kill the insects and allow some species to move further north.
More insects 'appear and cause a series of leaf drop. Trees will survive three to five years of defoliation, but after that it's a struggle,” Weiskittel said.
Experts and federal officials said what would help wildfire-prone states is a lot of good, heavy rain.
“With these types of fuels, they need a lot of rain, steady rain and cooler temperatures to reduce their fire potential,” said Nick Nauslar, forecast services meteorologist at The NIFC. Unfortunately for the upper Midwest and Northeast states, the summer forecast predicts more hot and potentially dry weather.
While wildfires in the Northeast and upper Midwest certainly don't burn the thousands of acres that wildfires in the West do, they still pose a threat to homes and property because many of these states are more densely populated.
“We have a lot of people, a lot of roads and a completely different context for what becomes important than what you would have in the West,” said Travis Verdegan, forecast services coordinator for the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources.
There is also the fact that people live closer to forests in some states that have large rural areas. During the Rhode Island wildfires this April, fire engines were parked in front of every house threatened by the fires in case crews needed to quickly put out a home, according to Boudreau.
“Most of New England would be what's considered the urban-wildland interface,” Dan Dillner, wildfire supervisor for Vermont, told CNN. “Especially Vermont, where outside of the inner cities, almost everybody has two, five, 10 acres of land that they own.”
Dense trees and vegetation around homes were mostly not a problem, Dillner said. But, he added, people are starting to think more about what living so close to nature might mean in terms of fire risk.
“People should think about vegetation management to prevent wildfires,” he said. “I think people are starting to think about it. I don't want people to get complacent and think it could never happen here.”
