With the latest unexpected escalation between Iran and the United States in Iraq, Syria's ongoing challenges have, for now, become a less-discussed point of regional tension. But for the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which continues to precariously control an autonomous region of northeastern Syria, recent months have tested the organization's hold on the region.
In the months since the withdrawal of US troops from the Turkish-Syrian border and the subsequent Turkish Operation Peace Spring, which began on October 9, the future of northeastern Syria has become somewhat less certain for the SDF. In addition to the previous major loss of Afrin during the previous Turkish Operation Olive Branch in March 2018, the SDF has now also lost Ras al-Ain and Tal Abyad.
However, for now, the two ceasefire agreements that Turkey signed with the United States On October 17 and with Russia on October 22 have so far prevented further conflict and expansion of Turkish territorial control in northeastern Syria. In addition, the SDF reached an agreement with Damascus with Russian mediation to protect the Syrian border, which, while not leading to a concrete agreement between Damascus and the SDF, has at least encouraged ongoing negotiations between the two.
In December, the author sat down for an interview with SDF Supreme Commander Mazloum Abdi, who explained the current position and concerns of the SDF and how the two cease-fire agreements that now govern the Syrian-Turkish border have reduced the risk of a future Turkish attack. . General Mazloum noted that while there is still a risk that Turkey could attack either Jazira (Hasaka province) or Kobani, such a scenario would not be easy for Turkey. “They know we're going to put up a big fight — but there are bigger deals for now. There are agreements with the Russians and also with the United States, which prevent Turkish attacks. The Americans say that if Turkey attacks [Kobani]there will be sanctions against Turkey—and there are also Russian forces there.”
Moreover, for the local government of Northeast Syria (NES), not much has changed in the months since Turkey's latest invasion. Although it had to evacuate its command center from Ain al-Issa and move to Raqqa, some checkpoints and the Fish Khabur border crossing with Iraq are still under the SDF's jurisdiction. The border crossing was particularly important, as it allows foreign journalists and NGOs to continue accessing northeastern Syria without having to obtain visas from the Damascus government. What has changed is that Russian forces have replaced US military positions, and Syrian forces now man the front lines with Turkish-backed forces, although they do not maintain checkpoints.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military has now shifted its position deeper into northeastern Syrian territory—between October and November, the U.S. military withdrew from areas near Raqqa, Kobani, and Manbij and redeployed forces in Hasakah province and in oil-rich Deir ar Zour. The forces are now tasked with protecting oil infrastructure and continuing the fight against ISIS.
The Resilience of the SDF
Despite the territorial losses, a notable result of the fighting was the demonstration of unity between Kurds and non-Kurds within the SDF, despite expectations to the contrary. SDF officials reported that there has been no significant defection of Arab SDF fighters or uprising of Arab civilians in northeastern Syria to support either Syrian regime forces or Turkey in areas such as Raqqa or Deir ez-Zor. As General Mazloum stated, “Turkey's plans were undermined. they expected that once they attacked, the Arab-populated areas would rise up against us [SDF], Raqqa, Deir Az-Zour, Manbij and Tabqah for example.' Similarly, although there was an expectation that non-Kurdish SDF soldiers would disperse, “That never happened, in fact, there was more unity. And now as we speak, Arab fighters are joining the SDF more than before the Turkish invasion.”
This was not the only attempt to induce these forces to abandon the SDF. Earlier in December, Syrian security chief Ali Mamlouk also asked Arab tribes to defect to the Syrian government. Mazloum suggested that the two attempts to induce defection—Damascus with its threats, Turkey with its attacks—both failed. Mazlum reported that his troops “rejected [the] appeal' of the Syrian government, attributing this to a shared vision: 'Those who have joined the SDF believe in the ideas and goals of the SDF.'
The Recognition Challenge
However, Ali Mamlouk's call underscores the continuing reality that the SDF and the Syrian government are not on good terms, despite the two sides' past military cooperation against Turkey. Negotiations between Damascus and the SDF to settle the status of the NES in the eyes of the Syrian government are ongoing, the SDF leader confirmed. However, so far Damascus refuses to agree to any conditions that they recognize the SDF and the government still wants to incorporate SDF fighters on an individual basis in the Syrian army.
Instead, the SDF has said it will only join the Syrian army in the event of a new Syrian constitution, in which the SDF “maintain[s] its autonomous status in the field of administration and institutions”. According to General Mazlum, it is only “Within this context [that] our discussions with the Russians and the Syrian government [will] to continue.”
So far, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad seems uninterested in such a deal, although a deal with the SDF could improve Syria's situation. is getting worse economy that has been weakened by the sorry state of the Syrian pound—which has hit a record low amid sanctions and war. The SDF still control significant oil and agricultural resources and conduct trade with the Iraqi Kurds, which could provide a boost to the overall Syrian economy if some sort of deal were to be reached.
Refugee issue
In addition, the SDF is now primarily dealing with another type of challenge on its border: Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's publicly stated desire to resettle one million Syrian refugees currently in Turkey in Syrian areas under his control.
As General Mazloum sees it, “Erdogan's goal is to bring in non-locals and force them to resettle, displace the Kurdish people and democrats from their homeland — and then hire mercenaries from those who have relocated to use them against the unity of the Syrian people, using Syrians to advance Erdogan's agenda in Syria.” The SDF leader argued that the basic conditions necessary for the resettlement of Syrian refugees have not yet been met: “First the Syrian war must be resolved so that everyone can return to their homes.”
The SDF and the local administration have always stated that it is their policy to allow any refugees from the SDF-controlled area to return and settle there. However, the SDF commander-in-chief stressed that the majority of Syrians in Turkey are from areas of Damascus, Homs and Daraa in the south. General Mazloum argues that Turkey's resettlement plan will not benefit either current NES residents or those being resettled, as he said those refugees currently in Syria “also do not want to be resettled in northeastern Syria.” Such a resettlement plan would reduce pressure for a political solution to allow refugees to return to their homes in Syria, and the general insisted that such a process must take place to resolve the Syrian crisis.
Conversely, Turkey's resettlement plan will in turn consolidate the displacement of Syrian Kurds from Afrin and other areas under Turkish control, in turn eroding support for the SDF in those areas. In June 2019 report from the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) expressed concerns that allowing Arabs to occupy Kurdish homes in Afrin could permanently change the ethnic composition there. The SDF fears that the scenario already playing out in Afrin could also affect areas newly controlled by Turkey, although the Turkish Ministry of Defense has he was fired these categories.
Balance between Russia and Damascus
Despite recent history, the SDF is not currently concerned that Russia would threaten the SDF with a green light for a Turkish attack on Kobani or other areas in order to pressure the SDF into making more concessions to Damascus as it did in January 2018. Moscow be allowed Turkey to attack Afrin once it became clear that the Kurds were not willing to hand over Afrin to Damascus.
Now, the Russians may seek access to oil-rich areas under US protection, but General Mazloum believes it is unlikely that such interests will translate into action. “There are agreements between the Russians and the Americans… They [the Russians] they have not asked us for such a thing and they are also coordinating with the Americans, not only with us.”
The current situation shows that although the SDF is weakened, it has managed to maintain its de facto autonomy, balancing between Moscow, Damascus, Ankara and Washington without disbanding the SDF. Additionally, the continued US presence in the oil-rich regions of northeastern Syria has now given the SDF leverage in negotiations with Damascus.
However, a political deal with Damascus is far from assured. And if the SDF and Damascus fail to reach an agreement, tensions are likely to rise once again. Continuing regional tensions between the United States and Iran could also negatively affect the SDF, especially in Deir ar Zour. However, Damascus does not have enough manpower to replace the SDF, especially due to its deteriorating economic situation. Thus, the SDF will continue to remain a de facto autonomous entity despite uncertainty about its future, unless there are unexpected changes in the Syrian political landscape.
