Temperature-related death and disease
By mid-century, heat index values above 100°F are projected to triple in the Northeast in an intermediate scenario. During extreme temperatures, nighttime temperatures in the region's major cities are generally several degrees warmer than surrounding areas, leading to a higher risk of heat-related death. Extreme temperatures are associated with a greater proportion of cardiorespiratory deaths in the Northeast and industrial Midwest (compared to other regions), particularly in areas with higher urbanization, older age, fewer white residents, and lower socioeconomic status.
Effects on air quality
Climate change will potentially lead to higher pollen concentrations and longer pollen seasons, resulting in more people suffering more health effects from pollen and other allergens. The health burden of pollen is of particular concern in the Northeast. One study found that there is 20% more pollen and the season is about three weeks longer compared to the 1990 season [2]. People with respiratory diseases, such as asthma, may be more sensitive to pollen. For those for whom pollen is an asthma trigger, exposure to pollen has been linked to asthma attacks and increases in hospital admissions for respiratory illnesses. Already, the Northeast region has seen some of the largest incremental increases in asthma emergency department visits.
In addition, air quality in the Northeast can be dramatically degraded by distant fires from Canada or the Western United States. This was seen in 2023 when wildfires along the western Canada-US border affected air quality in the northeastern United States [3]. During this event, New York City saw its worst daily average PM2.5 concentration in 50 years [3]. Exposure to wildfire smoke has been shown to lead to many negative health outcomes and is a known asthma trigger. At the same time, warmer temperatures will worsen near-surface ozone in the United States and further worsen respiratory conditions.
Extreme events
Much of the historical development of industry and commerce in New England occurred along rivers, canals, coasts, and other bodies of water. These areas often have a higher density of contaminated sites, waste management facilities and oil storage facilities that are potentially vulnerable to flooding. As a result, increases in the frequency or severity of flooding could increase the spread of pollutants into soils and waterways, resulting in increased risks to human health. Combined with storm surges, sea-level rise can create serious flooding risks, with consequent physical and mental health impacts on coastal populations.
Vector-borne diseases
Increased temperatures make certain diseases more prevalent in aquatic organisms (eg Vibrio species), which are among the most important causes of seafood-borne diseases. At the same time, climate change is predicted to expand the geographic range of many disease-carrying insects, such as ticks. Already, there has been an increase in tick-borne diseases such as Lyme disease in the Northeast with some documented spread northward into Canada [4].
Water related disease
Increased soil erosion and agricultural runoff, including manure, fertilizers, and pesticides, are associated with excessive nutrient loading to water bodies and subsequent food safety or public health issues. Indeed, harmful algal blooms (HABs) occur more frequently in the Northeast compared to other regions and are known to cause illness either through contact with contaminated water or consumption of exposed shellfish. At the same time, warmer winters increase weed and pest pressure, increasing demand for pesticides, thereby increasing the risk of human health impacts from increased chemical exposure.
Food safety, nutrition and distribution
In the northeast, fish stocks not only move northeast along the continental shelf into deeper water, but their distribution also changes. Warm water fish stay longer, while cold water species stay for shorter periods of time. This change changes when the species can be caught. Additionally, changes in wildlife life cycle events have been recorded. For example, phytoplankton blooms occurred later in recent decades, while larval fish emergence and fish migration occur earlier.
At the same time, the Mid-Atlantic gulf is acidifying faster than other coastal areas of the Atlantic. Ocean acidification can affect fishery resources, including American lobster, scallops, oysters, clams and mussels. In the Northeast, scallops are one of the most lucrative fisheries and acidification will have socio-economic impacts.
Mental health and wellness
Some tribal nations and other coastal communities may need to shift their economic or subsistence crops to new species migrating into the area. However, the loss of traditional items or places will likely lead to the loss of cultural practices that will harm physical and mental health and well-being. Loss of access to culturally significant sites and wildlife will harm the physical and mental health of indigenous peoples.
Populations of concern
Climate impacts are exacerbating environmental, health and socio-economic burdens on some communities. The elderly, those living with disabilities or chronic illnesses, people who do not have access to air conditioning, live in nursing homes, are socially isolated or work outdoors are considered particularly vulnerable to the effects of heat.
In addition, the combination of heat stress and poor air quality in cities can pose a significant risk to the health of vulnerable groups: young children, the elderly, the socially or linguistically isolated, the economically disadvantaged and people with pre-existing health conditions , including asthma.
Similarly, people who are socioeconomically disadvantaged, elderly, historically excluded, linguistically or socially isolated, and people who have recently migrated, as well as people with existing health inequalities are more vulnerable to rainfall and flooding due to limited capacity to prepare and respond. such events.
