Where will Hurricane Lee hit?
Hurricane Lee will fluctuate in strength early this week as it tracks across North America, where it will affect New England and Atlantic Canada.
Accuweather
As a lifelong surfer, Josh Wagner has always appreciated the swells from distant hurricanes off the coast of Florida that can deliver clean, beautiful waves.
As a beachfront homeowner on the state's Atlantic coast — who may have lost his home south of Daytona Beach without jumping on a tractor in the middle of the night during Hurricane Nicole last fall — he now fears the erosion and destruction that could to bring about a hurricane.
Hurricane Lee could be the worst of the two, Wagner told USA TODAY. Its waves are predicted to be choppy, lousy for surfing and come with a high risk of rip currents. Any big, rough waves could remove some of the sand returned to beaches near Ponce Inlet by Nicole.
Similar fears will ripple northwards across the Atlantic coast this week. Lee is forecast to move north along the coast a few hundred miles to the east, bringing huge waves and dangerous surf from Florida to Maine.
As of Monday afternoon, the hurricane maintained its “major” Category 3 status, with sustained winds of 115 mph. and hurricane-force winds expanded significantly, now up to 75 miles from the center.
Although significant winds are likely to remain offshore for most of the U.S. coast, rip currents and dangerous surf are expected, according to the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service offices along the coast. Bigger waves and currents have already started reaching East Coast beaches, the weather service said Monday, and that's only expected to increase.
“It's going to generate a tremendous amount of energy in the ocean in the form of traditional ocean waves,” Jamie Rohm, deputy director of the hurricane center, told USA TODAY. “When that energy hits the coast, it produces this huge current hazard.”
Where is Hurricane Lee right now?
- As of 11 p.m. Monday, Lee remained a major hurricane, with sustained winds of 115 mph.
- The storm was about 580 miles south of Bermuda and 410 miles north-northwest of the northern Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest at 7 mph.
- A Saildrone — one of several deployed over the ocean along Lee's path — 40 miles south-southeast of Lee's center reported sustained winds of 77 mph and a gust of 105 mph, the hurricane center said Monday at 11 p.m. m.
- A buoy between Lee and San Salvador Island in the Bahamas reported significant wave heights of 17.7 feet.
- Lee is forecast to strengthen to 120 mph winds Monday night, then begin to weaken as it is buffeted by wind shear later in the week and encounters areas of colder water left by Hurricanes Idalia and Franklin.
What is the hurricane's path? Will Lee hit the Northeast or Canada?
It's too early to know how Lee could affect the U.S. Northeast coast and Atlantic Canada, the hurricane center said Monday, especially since the hurricane is expected to slow significantly.
- Hurricane Lee is forecast to make a gradual turn north by Wednesday and pass between the mid-Atlantic US and Bermuda on Friday.
- Lee could bring strong winds, rain and high impacts to Bermuda later this week.
- In Maine and along the New England coastthe National Weather Service said Monday that Lee's “path, intensity, and impacts (if any) remain uncertain.”
- The hurricane center's forecast cone calls for Lee's center to be offshore somewhere between the New England coast and southeast Nova Scotia by Saturday night.
- As of 11 p.m., much of eastern New England was in the “cone of uncertainty” on the hurricane center's forecast map for Lee. This includes a portion of the Boston metro area, along with Cape Cod and the islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket.
- “Dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents” continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Bahamas and will affect most of the US East Coast this week as Lee grows and moves northward.
What is the concern of the current rip?
Rip currents are of particular concern to weather officials because 2023 has already been a deadly year: At least 75 deaths are believed to be attributed to rip currents and dangerous surf conditions, the third-highest year since record-keeping began in 2002.
A report published by the American Meteorological Society in August concluded that the proportion of direct deaths attributable to rip currents associated with tropical cyclones has doubled. The authors found:
- Direct deaths during tropical cyclones increased from 6% in 1963-2012 to 15% in 2013-2022.
- Deaths often occur one or two at a time from distant storms hundreds of miles offshore.
- Florida, North Carolina, and New Jersey experienced the highest number of surf and rip current-related deaths associated with tropical cyclones.
“The reason rip currents are so deadly is because all the other hazards in a hurricane have a visual cue,” Rhome said. “Even if you don't believe the soothsayers, you will believe your eyes.
“The air surrounding a hurricane sinks, and that sinking air creates cloudless conditions and warm days,” he said. “It's almost perfect beach weather. People are flocking to the beach and there's no visual indication that anything's wrong. There's nothing to see to tell you to be careful.”
Wagner said rip currents appear to be more prevalent in soft sand offshore than hurricanes. It advises people to enter the water near lifeguards.
“People think this beautiful beach is safe, and it's not,” Wagner said. “People don't respect mother nature. You're in the ocean, you're not in a pool.”
What is the forecast for Lee along the coast?
What to do if you get a rip current:
“These rip currents grab, and your first primary reaction to that is to swim back to shore. That's hardwired into your brain,” Rhome said. “Unfortunately the rip current is harder than people can swim. Most people can swim and swim and swim and can't overcome the rip current.
“Your only option is to swim parallel to the shore and try to get out of it,” he said. The other option is to relax and float until you get out of the current.
What's next?
It's not just this storm that worries Wagner. It's the other storm on watch for the hurricane center off Africa's west coast, which already has surf forecasts calling for 20-foot swells in about two weeks.
“If we get hit by another storm, we have no defense,” said Wagner, an attorney and former county councilman. Communities along the beach between Daytona Beach and Ponce Inlet were hit hard by Hurricane Ian and then by Hurricane Nicole.
Wagner's family lost their yard and a sea wall, which they have since been able to replace. Because the loss of sand revealed that his property was lined with coquina rock, he was able to get a state permit to add rock to the wall.
They were unable to replace the 11 feet of sand and dunes behind their home that they lost during the two hurricanes. Others along the beach failed to replace sea walls or add rocks and some lost houses.
“By November I was watching the storms and getting excited … for people like me who are experiencing this for the first time, it really changes you.”
His entire coastal community is at risk if it gets a slow storm or a few storms, he said. “This storm could be really, really devastating.”
Whatever storm hits, they're going to hit us “like Mike Tyson fighting Evander Holyfield,” he said.
Contributed by: Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
