With the 2022 midterm primaries underway, the impact of political endorsements—particularly in key Republican races—is beginning to become clear. And with the balance of power in Congress at stake this election cycle, Republicans are looking to muster all the political leverage they have to regain power.
That's why many observers are watching how endorsements from former President Donald Trump, who – according to some polls – still commands majority support among Republican voters, play into the ongoing primary races. So far, several Trump-backed candidates have prevailed in House and Senate races, with some high-profile losses, The New York Times References.
But in a political environment that, since Trump's arrival on the scene, has been anything but “business as usual” and as questions surrounding the former president's political future continue to create headlines, many are wondering, how important are endorsements today? When can they make or break a campaign?
Costas Panagopoulos, head of Northeastern's political science department and editor of American Politics Research. Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University
“Endorsements can make the difference especially in the extremes and very close races.” Kostas Panagopouloshead of Northeastern's political science department and editor of American Politics Research, says. “Generally speaking, however, there are more fundamental variables that affect election outcomes than endorsements.”
Panagopoulos says endorsements can be effective during the primaries if the endorser has a loyal following, like Trump's.
“But that's not what it means [Trump’s] endorsements will dictate the outcome of the election, and this has already been demonstrated in the context of the 2022 midterms, where [he] has had a mixed record in terms of… matches that have already been completed,” says Panagopoulos.
And, he adds, a Trump endorsement could backfire.
“While there are candidates stumbling to align themselves with Donald Trump, others are trying to distance themselves from the former president and the potential baggage he brings with his endorsements,” says Panagopoulos.
A political outsider who managed to lure Republican voters away from the GOP establishment in the run-up to the 2016 presidential election, Trump remains a central figure in the GOP with significant influence across the conservative spectrum — though experts question to what extent. and how long that influence will last. But his anti-establishment message has catapulted him into the mainstream, which may serve to open the party to new forms of populism, he says Nick Beauchampassistant professor of political science at Northeastern.
Nick Beauchamp, assistant professor of political science at Northeastern. Photo by Alyssa Stone/Northeastern University
“While he still aligns with the more populist wing, his anti-establishment cause makes things a little more difficult, because in some ways he is the establishment now,” says Beauchamp. “That means there might be a little more room for voters in the Republican primary to support candidates that Trump hasn't endorsed.”
Indeed, results from Tuesday's Georgia primary saw Trump-backed candidates lose across the board to a resounding rebuke from the former president. Trump-endorsed David Perdue in Georgia's GOP gubernatorial race was handily defeated by incumbent Brian Kemp, who was endorsed by former Vice President Mike Pence; The results speak to divisions within the Republican Party that could reduce Trump's power with conservative voters, Beauchamp says.
But while a Trump endorsement has proven to hurt some Republicans' bids, others, like JD Vance of Ohio, who is running for a Senate seat there — and a former “never Trump” — reversed course to embrace Trump.
“J. “It seemed to make a difference in the end.”
How do endorsements play out in the Democratic primary?
“The Democratic side is interesting because, in a way, it's not just about one figure,” says Beauchamp. “But in a sense it is too. You have your establishment Democrats, like [Nancy] Pelosi and [Joe] Biden and some of your more center-left [political action committees] and interest groups, against a fairly coherent left-wing insurgency from the [Bernie] Clan Sanders.”
Beauchamp says he currently sees the country as essentially divided into four parties, with two divisions representing both the Democratic and Republican parties.
“For the GOP, there's the Trump faction — which is the largest group — and the non-Trump faction,” he says.
While the Democrats appear to have a more diverse field, mainstream left-of-center figures have a place compared to progressives like Sanders and — to some extent — Sen. Elizabeth Warren.
“Each of these groups is becoming more cohesive,” says Beauchamp. “What happens when you have a rebellion of the fringes against the center?”
For media inquiriescontact media@northeastern.edu.
