“Civil war is coming” a woman from New Jersey posted on social media days after taking part in last year's raid on the US Capitol.
Indeed, America had not experienced a disruption in the peaceful transfer of power like what happened a year ago after the Civil War. Sharp divisions between Democrats and Republicans make it look like the country is on the brink of falling apart, but it wouldn't be accurate to call it a civil war, says a prominent national security expert at Northeastern.
“We have to be careful about what we mean by civil war,” says political science professor Max Abrams. While there is no consensus on the definition of the term, most scholars point out that a civil war requires a certain threshold of deaths on the government side and the resistance side, he adds. Five people, including a Capitol Police officer, died in the melee.
“Bad planning leads to bad decision-making leads to bad results,” says Ruben Galindo (left), director of public safety at Northeastern, on the one-year anniversary of the Jan. 6 attacks on the U.S. Capitol. Max Abrams (right), who teaches courses on national security and terrorism, warns against characterizing America's red-blue divide as a civil war. Photo by Alyssa Stone/Northeastern University and Photo by Matthew Modoono/Northeastern University
“I don't believe America will get violent enough to call it a civil war,” Abrahms says. This does not preclude the prospect further politician Violence as it occurred on January 6, 2021, he adds, “but it will not have a civil war.”
Prosecutors have charged more than 700 people with assault, resisting arrest and other crimes in connection with the events of the past year. About 165 people have pleaded guilty, the U.S. attorney's office for the District of Columbia said.
Capitol security has been overhauled since flag-waving supporters of former President Donald Trump overwhelmed armed guards and occupied the domed building that serves as the nation's seat of government. There's no shortage of theories about why and how it happened, but a law enforcement expert at Northeastern says it boils down to a lack of leadership.
“I've seen videos where there were officers in the Capitol dressed in riot gear just standing off to the side,” he says Ruben Galido, director of public safety at Northeastern. “They don't know what to do because they're not being told what to do and that puts a burden on the leadership or the incident commander.”
Galindo previously spent more than 30 years with the Miami-Dade Police Department in Florida, where he worked several high-profile events with large crowds, including two Super Bowls. Preparation has always been key. A major sporting event is awarded to a host city years in advance, he points out, so security officials have a long runway to plan and coordinate with multiple agencies.
Likewise, the intelligence community had a heads up, albeit more briefly, that something was likely to go down on Capitol Hill, but failed to react properly. “January 6 we all knew it was coming,” he says. “Bad planning leads to bad decision-making leads to bad results.”
Where did things go wrong? Investigators cited a lack of communication and coordination among law enforcement personnel as one of several broken links in the security chain. What should have happened, Galindo says, is a multi-layered approach that becomes steadily harder to penetrate the closer one gets to the intended target.
“You almost have to look at this as a layered onion, with the Capitol at the center,” he says.
Recommendations to improve security include hiring hundreds of extra police officers, but North East experts believe this is the wrong approach. “I'm not a big proponent of overly beefing up security on Capitol Hill for two main reasons,” Abrahms says. First, he doesn't believe the incident can be replicated—“It was driven by a unique set of events,” he says.
Second, he worries about the danger of democracy turning into a police state.
“One of the real virtues of the American political system is that it gives the appearance of openness, which is critical to a functioning democracy. We have to be very careful about the costs of overreaction,” says Abrahms.
So what is the right balance?
It starts with identifying exactly who the enemy is, says Abrahms, whose book on militant groups, Rules for Rebels: The Science of Victory in Military Historyexamines why some of them succeed while others fail.
“Often, an extremist is anyone you disagree with, even politically,” he says. “The concept of extremism needs to be defined very carefully.”
After the attack, Capitol Police officers have been receiving daily updates on threat assessments and have been provided with cell phones for emergency alerts and messages, the department's inspector general said. he told Congress at a hearing last month. The force is also updating policies and procedures on lockdowns and has begun conducting more rigorous training.
Michael Silevich and Carey Rappaport are professors of electrical and computer engineering at Northeastern who oversee several security programs for the federal government. None include the Capitol, but they believe a series of architectural changes could prevent future invaders from breaching the vaulted building.
Their recommendations include a narrowing of corridors to prevent large numbers of people from walking shoulder to shoulder. Reinforced metal bins can also minimize damage from a bomb blast.
But this raises the bigger question – could there be a repeat of January 6, 2021?
“Yes, depending on where,” says Galindo, Northeastern's chief of public safety. He believes a similar incident could happen in the United States in an unprepared location. It is doubtful, however, that this would include the nation's capital.
“Probably not, but shame on them because it's already happened once,” he says.
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