US evacuation from Afghanistan has the makings of a human and political disaster – and it shouldn't have ended this way, says Khusal Shafiwho heads the international security office at Northeastern and is an Afghan native.
“None of this was a surprise, with the exception of the speed of the acquisition,” says Safi.
In response to the abrupt US withdrawal from Afghanistan, the Taliban quickly seized control of the country with little to no opposition from the Afghan army or government. The transfer of power caught President Joe Biden by surprise, threatening his administration's goal of vacating 15,000 Americans and thousands more Afghans who helped the US during the 20-year war that followed the attacks of September 11, 2001.
The Pentagon announced Thursday that 7,000 civilians had been evacuated from Kabul, home to the only available airport after the US. Abandoned Bagram Airfield on July. The Taliban offer “safe passage” for citizens seeking to leave Afghanistan, according to the White House. But no timetable has been negotiated for the completion of the mass evacuation.
Coexistence is fragile, says Shafi, who served in Afghanistan from 2009 to 2014 as a US intelligence officer.
“There is enough room for a mistake to happen that could lead to an escalation of the conflict. As a hypothetical, a Taliban fighter shoots some members of the US forces guarding the airport,” says Safi, raising one of the many fears he has about the volatile environment in Afghanistan. “And then the employee returns fire. Now the stability of the knife edge has been disrupted, which can lead to further conflict.”
Shafi spoke to me News@Northeastern about the chaos in Afghanistan. His comments have been edited for brevity and clarity.
What was the biggest surprise of the American withdrawal?
It seemed that the US government really believed that Kabul would remain safe.
Therefore, the ultimate failure of this evacuation was either an intelligence failure, or perhaps misrepresentation by the Biden administration about the actual ground truth of what was happening in Afghanistan. Apparently, the Biden administration was caught off guard.
Who faces the greatest risk in Afghanistan?
Those at immediate risk are Afghans who have collaborated with the military or the former Afghan government and are extremely fearful of retribution. Anyone who worked for the Afghan government in any official capacity, especially in the intelligence branches that targeted the Taliban, was most at risk.
In the long term, anyone who does not go along with Taliban rule is at risk, including gender rights advocates and the group's historic enemies.
Is the US government committed to helping Afghans come to the US?
Under the Doha accords, US forces and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) were supposed to have withdrawn by May. The expedited visa for Afghans who had helped the US were approved on July 22. Apparently, it was not a priority of the US government. So you have to point the finger here at the sheer unpreparedness of the current and previous US administrations.
That said, there are NGOs, politicians and others in the US military who have been sounding the alarm for years. These voices seem to have been ignored or drowned out.
What about the people who can't leave Afghanistan? Will there be other ways to escape evil?
In my opinion, Afghans are survivors. Those with the means and opportunity will seek safe haven either with their tribe, with factions opposed to the Taliban takeover – such as the opposition movement forming in the Panjshir Valley – or attempt to cross the rather porous border.
Unfortunately, some will be imprisoned, tried under the Taliban's version of Islamic (Sharia) Law, and possibly executed. Time will tell how serious the Taliban are promise of amnesty, including who will get amnesty and who won't. I predict that those granted amnesty will have the protection of their clan elders from stronger Pashtun tribes, while members of weaker Pashtun tribes and non-Pashtuns will have fewer opportunities for amnesty.
What is the biggest mistake the US has made?
We evacuated Bagram Airfield, which was the dumbest thing anyone could ever do. At what point do you think it's okay to leave one of the largest airports in the world, knowing you still had to move Americans and our allies out of the country?
This will be the original sin of this evacuation. Closing Bagram meant losing access to a safe airport. This limited the number of air assets as they were transferred to other areas outside of Afghanistan and resulted in a delayed ability to move personnel. In addition, the evacuation was required to depart from Kabul Airport, a location the US did not control, resulting in a chaotic scramble of US personnel and allies out of the country.
The US negotiated a ceasefire with the Taliban in February 2020. What role did those negotiations in Doha, Qatar play in the chaos we see today?
You can probably attribute the warming of US relations with the Taliban during the Doha Accords and the White House's invitation to the Taliban to come to Camp David to meet with the former President as the point where many Afghans saw the writing on the wall. They could see that the Afghan government had indeed cut itself off from the Doha accords, and that there was more bilateral diplomatic initiative between the US and the Taliban. At that point, if I'm wearing my Afghan hat, I'd say, “The Afghan government is on edge.”
Thus, the US is setting the scene for the downfall of the Afghan government in Doha. And then the current administration ends the aid mission the day US forces withdrew from Bagram Airfield, which showed the Afghans that the US had no interest in staying. As a result, the Afghan army had no interest in fighting, so they looked to the next government. And it happened to be the Taliban.
What do you expect from the Taliban?
I believe that the Taliban are not going to take any kind of revenge against the departing United States forces or their allies at this time. I think the Taliban are very focused on their image in the international community.
You have a smarter Taliban. It's the Taliban who were in Doha negotiating with the Americans, the Taliban who sent emissaries to neighboring countries to say, “Look, this is what we want to do.” The Taliban are the ones who have chosen governors, police and army in preparation to return to power. The Taliban know that if they retaliate, other ethnic elements in Afghanistan will shun their leadership role.
We must understand that the Taliban is not a monolithic force controlling Afghanistan with some kind of hierarchical military and government structure. This is a tight knit group of different Afghan tribes who agree to work with the Taliban who are currently in charge.
Tribal elders persuaded former officials and supporters of the Afghan government by telling them: “Lay down your weapons. There is nothing to fight for. The Americans are leaving and you're just going to destroy the country by going into a civil war.” So now the Taliban are beholden to these tribal elders who stuck their necks out for the Taliban.
At the same time, clan leaders are not dumb. All these different clans are arming themselves right now and waiting to see what happens. And they are well equipped with American weapons and American training.
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