The east coast is preparing for the arrival of the hurricane
New England harbors and fishing villages are being emptied of boats as the region prepares for Hurricane Lee. (September 15) (AP video by Rodrique Ngowi and Robert Bukaty)
AP
Longtime New Englanders are much more used to fighting Easter norwegians than dealing with the effects of hurricanes.
But strong winds from Lee — once a Category 5 hurricane — churning in the Atlantic near the New England coast were a reminder that strong storms can still pose a threat, even in these relatively cold, northern waters. And that threat could be growing.
As storms make their way north along the Atlantic coast, they tend to weaken. Cooler ocean temperatures, drier air and stronger winds don't provide the support hurricanes need.
While water temperatures have been above normal in the Northeast, they are still nowhere near the bathtub-like temperatures in the South. And hurricanes need warm water for energy.
However, some studies suggest that conditions could become more favorable for more hurricane-force winds in the region as climate change continues to unfold.
How does climate change play a role in hurricanes in the Northeast?
How climate change might affect tropical cyclones is still an issue intense research and discussion, but many scientists agree that rainfall is increasing in storms and that storms have more impact when they make landfall because sea levels have risen.
Several studies also suggest hurricane activity and the potential for stronger winds are likely to extend northward on a warming planet.
Tropical cyclones are most often located at lower latitudes, where they find warm ocean water that serves as fuel for a storm. It's also an area where strong jet streams are less likely to break away from cloud tops, which allows hurricanes to build the engines that drive them.
But a 2021 study led by scientists at Yale University found that a warming planet could mean hurricanes spin further north than they used to, affecting cities like New York and Boston. That study was released shortly after Henri – a hurricane that weakened to a tropical storm before making landfall in Rhode Island – lashed the Northeast with strong winds and record-breaking rainfall.
Kerry Emanuel, a meteorologist and climatologist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, told USA TODAY on Friday that researchers recently studied hurricane risks on the Maine coast and concluded that those risks will increase.
Hurricane-force winds that would have had a 1-in-500-year chance late last century will increase to about 1-in-135-years by the end of this century, said Emanuel, a Maine resident who experienced Lee firsthand in the morning. Saturday's. The study found large potential increases in hurricane rainfall, but with more uncertainty surrounding those predictions.
How is climate change affecting water temperatures in New England?
The northeastern continental shelf has warmed faster than any other region of the USaccording to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
This is especially true in the Gulf of Maine, which is warming faster than many other bodies of water on Earth. The past two years have been the warmest on record, according to Gulf of Maine Research Institute: warming rate – 0.86 degrees per decade – three times that of the world's oceans. The average temperature of 53.66 last year was more than 3.7 degrees above the 40-year average.
Global ocean temperatures are rising on average, and this was a record year. Scientists are working to tease apart all the factors that could contribute to the sharp increases seen this year, including continued warming from greenhouse gas emissions and a spike in water vapor in the upper atmosphere from the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha' volcano eruption apai last year.
Warmer water matters in storms because it increases moisture in the atmosphere, and this allows for heavier rainfall and a greater chance of flooding. Warmer waters also provide more fuel for hurricanes and tropical cyclones and can help them maintain their tropical characteristics as they move northward in the Atlantic.
Warmer ocean temperatures are also contributing to sea level rise. And, with other climate-related changes, NOAA said warmer oceans are affecting ecosystems and marine life.
Which northeastern states could see the biggest increase in hurricane-force winds?
It's becoming increasingly likely that northeastern states will experience higher winds more often in the future, according to a study by the First Street Foundation earlier this year.
Working with Emanuel, First Street used a computer analysis to examine 50,000 potential storm tracks and looked at the potential effects of the sustained winds and higher-speed gusts that accompany tropical storms and hurricanes, based on local topography and property characteristics. .
The five states likely to see the biggest increase in wind damage in the coming years, according to First Street, were all in the Northeast:
- Connecticut
- New York
- New Hampshire
- Maryland
- New Jersey
Top 10 states for hurricanes
Not surprisingly, Florida, surrounded on three sides by water, is far and away the leader, getting hit by a hurricane nearly twice as often as the next closest contender, Texas. That's according to National Hurricane Center records dating back to 1851.
After Texas, in order are:
- Louisiana
- North Carolina
- South Carolina
- Alabama
- Agriculture
- Mississippi
- Virginia
- New York
Which countries are hit by the most tropical cyclones?
According to NOAA, these 10 countries have experienced the most tropical cyclones, based on storm tracks crossing the coastline at hurricane intensity.
The ranking – which looked at storms since 1970, when global satellite coverage became available – does not include storms that remained offshore, even though they may have affected the country.
◾ China
◾ Philippines
◾ Japan
◾ Mexico
◾ United States
◾ Australia
◾ Taiwan
◾ Vietnam
◾ Madagascar
◾ Cuba
