On the 4th of July weekend, people will flock to the small town Gettysburg, Pennsylvaniato celebrate the 160th anniversary of one of the the deadliest battles in US history.
The three-day battle left over 50,000 Union and Confederate soldiers dead, wounded or missing and cemented Gettysburg's place in American history. turning point of the Civil War.
A few months after the battle, President Abraham Lincoln visited the city for its dedication National Soldiers Cemetery. There he delivered his famous Gettysburg Address. Lincoln called on Americans to dedicate themselves to the “unfinished business” for which so many had died at Gettysburg: the preservation of the United States and a “new birth of liberty” for the nation.
I have researched Americans support for political violence in my work as a political scientist at Northeastern and Harvard Universities. As an incoming professor at Gettysburg College, which was attacked by Confederate soldiers and served as a makeshift hospital during the battle, I wanted to see if the legacies of the Civil War still influence Americans' support for political violence today.
I found that, overall, Americans living in the Confederate states that violently rebelled against the United States during the Civil War express significantly more support for the idea that violent protest against the government can be justified.
The inhabitants of what is known as the border states, the slave states that did not secede from the Union, are also more likely than residents of the Union states to say that violent protest against the government may be justified. The support of the Confederate States and the Border States are not statistically different from each other.
Residents of Confederate states are also significantly more likely than Americans living in Union or border states to say it is justified to engage in violent protest against the government right now.
“Increased support for political violence”
From December 22, 2022 to January 17, 2023, my colleagues and I at The work of the COVID States, a multi-university group polling Americans in all 50 US states, asked over 20,000 Americans about their support for violent protest against the US government. Our survey asked whether they believe violence is ever justified and whether violence is currently justified.
I then analyzed responses by state residence, grouping respondents by survey loyalty of the state in the Civil War: Union, Confederacy, or Border State. Americans living in states that did not exist during the Civil War are excluded from the analysis.
Confederate state residents are about 2 percentage points more likely than Union state residents to say it is “definitely” or “probably” justified to engage in violent protest against the government. Residents of border states are about 3 points more likely than residents of the Union to say violence can be justified.
When asked if participating in violent protest against the government is justified right now, 12% of residents of the Confederate States say yes – which is 2 percentage points higher than the percentage who say yes in the border states and 3 points higher higher than in the states of the Union.
To ensure that these results do not reflect underlying social and demographic differences in the residents of these states, I used a statistical technique known as multiple regression. This technique allows researchers to determine the effect of one variable—in this case, state residence—on an outcome—support for political violence—after accounting for differences attributable to other factors.
This analysis reveals that even after accounting for partisanship, race, gender, education, age, income, ideology, and attitudes toward blacks, residents of Confederate states still express significantly greater support for the policy violence than the inhabitants of the States of the Union or the borders.
Before you start fortifying your homes against a second Civil War, keep in mind that support for political violence – even among residents of the old Confederacy – remains low.
Nowhere near the majority of Americans are ready to take up arms to overthrow the government. However, like the Attack of January 6th in the US Capitol, even a small minority of people intent on violence can cause serious harm to the nation.
History matters
Taken together, these results demonstrate the importance of historical factors in understanding contemporary support for political violence.
Political scientists have identified the importance of slavery on contemporary political attitudes, demonstrating that long-eradicated institutions still shape politics today.
Research has also shown that Southern myths about the Civil War, including “Lost Cause” narrative of the Confederacy – which sees the Confederate cause as glorious and honorable rather than aiming to preserve slavery – dominated history textbooks after 1877.
AP Photo/Matt Rourke
These distortions affect how modern Americans think about history. As recently as 2017, poll by the Southern Poverty Law Center found that only 8% of American 12th graders could correctly identify slavery as the central cause of the Civil War.
Distorted depictions of the Civil War as a glorious struggle for independence from southern states may contribute to the significantly greater support for political violence among residents of those states today. The current political debate about how history is taught in public schools highlights the importance of such decisions.
Lincoln: “These dead will not have died in vain”
On this somber anniversary, perhaps Americans can take time to reflect Lincoln's famous words that “there is increased devotion to that cause” for which these honored dead “gave the last measure of devotion.”
The Civil War was essentially the largest instance of domestic violence against the government in US history. Now, in an era increasing political violence nation, I believe it is more important than ever to reflect on the Battle of Gettysburg – and the terrible toll the violence there took.
