America's offshore wind evangelist isn't sure he'd do it all over again.
Jim Gordon has spent millions trying to build Cape Wind, the doomed offshore wind project he proposed off Massachusetts in 2001. But he was in high spirits Wednesday. Vineyard Wind, a project capable of producing nearly twice the amount of power Gordon once envisioned, announced that the first of its 62 turbines had delivered power to the New England grid.
“I feel good about today,” he said in a telephone interview. “It is an important date because offshore wind will be an important component of our energy future. It's unfortunate that it took so long to happen.”
Gordon is not involved with Vineyard Wind. It has advanced the development of solar energy and energy storage facilities. However, news that the wind project south of Martha's Vineyard is generating power gave him a boost, validating his position that the Northeast must look to the ocean for a more sustainable electricity supply.
But if Vineyard Wind's announcement is proof of Gordon's original idea, it also underscores the dangers facing states that rely on offshore wind to fuel their climate agendas. States stretching from Massachusetts to North Carolina have set targets to buy offshore wind, with the intention of greening their power supply. President Joe Biden wants to build enough offshore wind to power 10 million homes by the end of the decade.
The only problem: The world needs to cut emissions immediately to prevent global warming, and the development of a large offshore wind farm could wipe out most of the decade. And that's if things go well.
Vineyard Wind originally won a Massachusetts power contract in 2018. It was nearly derailed by permitting delays during the Trump administration and didn't get the federal green light to begin construction until Biden took office in 2021.
The project then faced inflationary pressures from rising interest rates and an immature supply chain, which survived largely because its developers, Avangrid and Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, secured contracts to build the project before prices began to rise .
“This is truly a milestone for offshore wind and the entire renewable energy industry in North America,” said Tim Evans, partner and head of North America at Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners. “By delivering the first energy, we have broken new ground and shown a sustainable way forward with energy that is renewable, locally produced and affordable.”
Avangrid CEO Pedro Azagra called it “a watershed moment for US climate action and a dawn for the US offshore wind industry.”
But some other projects have yet to see the light of day.
Hours after Vineyard Wind's announcement, another group of developers said as much were canceling their electricity contract for a project serving New York State. Equinor and BP said rising costs meant their Empire Wind 2 project, a 1,260 megawatt development, was no longer financially viable under the terms of the electricity deal.
Analysts said the move paves the way for the pair to try to secure higher prices when New York calls for proposals for new projects later this year. An Equinor official stressed that the company remains committed to developing Empire Wind 2.
But the announcement points to the growing pains that continue to plague offshore wind. Empire Wind 2 is the seventh project to cancel its electricity contract in the past 12 months. Two of those projects, Ocean Wind I and II in New Jersey, were canceled altogether.
Higher financing costs, difficulty securing specialized vessels needed to install offshore wind turbines and long permitting timelines are among the reasons consultants such as BloombergNEF have downgraded their outlook for offshore wind. Just last July, BNEF expected 23,100 MW of offshore wind to come online by 2030. It now believes the US is on track for 14,500 MW by that year.
“If you look at it, almost every project in the US, at least in the last 2-3 years, has been affected by cost pressures. Even Vineyard Wind was affected, just not as pronounced,” said Atin Jain, a BNEF analyst who tracks the industry.
The lesson of Vineyard Wind, he said, is “don't underestimate things that surprise you and catch you off guard. Proper contingency planning is the bottom line.”
Jain believes the US offshore wind industry is now heading for a reset, with developers looking for new contracts that pay higher electricity prices to their projects. The extent of the industry's recovery will largely depend on states' willingness to absorb higher prices for offshore wind power.
An early indication arrived last fall, when New York announced three new contracts that they pay more for offshore wind from previous agreements commissioned by the state.
Connecticut, Massachusetts and Rhode Island are moving forward with a plan to jointly buy more offshore wind power. The three New England states hope that by working together, they can achieve greater economies of scale and attract cheaper prices.
The states are accepting bids until the end of the month and hope to make a decision by the summer, said Elizabeth Mahony, commissioner of the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources.
“We strongly believe in the power of offshore wind and this industry and its ability to provide clean energy to our region in a way that really lifts our region's economy,” she said in an interview.
Paving the way
Current and former Massachusetts officials said they hoped Vineyard Wind's announcement would help erase bad memories associated with Cape Wind and accelerate the Bay State's climate work.
Gina McCarthy, a former Massachusetts environmental official who went on to champion offshore wind as Biden's first climate adviser, recalled hearing Gordon's pitch in the early 2000s and wondering if people on Cape Cod would follow through. the idea.
He expressed confidence that Vineyard Wind would facilitate the construction of the next round of projects. People are inherently skeptical of new technologies, he said, but warm to them when the benefits are proven.
“I think it's just a story of how it takes time for new technologies to develop and be accepted,” McCarthy said. “But you can't give up. That's the big lesson here.”
Vineyard Wind is not the first offshore wind project to be built in the United States. That distinction belongs to the Block Island Wind Farm, a five-turbine, 30-MW pilot project off Rhode Island. It's not even the first utility-scale project to start generating power in the past month. South Fork Wind, a 12-turbine project, began sending electricity to the grid in December. when completed, it will generate 130 MW of electricity for Long Island consumers.
But no other project better represents the scope and ambition of what offshore wind means for the Northeast's climate ambitions. At 800 MW, Vineyard Wind will be more than twice the size of the next largest wind or solar development on the East Coast, a 321 MW onshore wind farm in New York and the third largest renewable energy project in the country.
This injection of power is especially important in New England, which is joined by a single six-state electric grid. In recent years, the region has struggled with renewable energy development and worries about the reliability of its limited natural gas pipeline network.
Wind and solar power account for 7 percent of the energy on the New England grid, compared to 14 percent nationally. State and federal regulators have also spent years trying to avoid a scenario where increased demand for natural gas during a cold winter leads to fuel shortages and power outages. Natural gas generates about half of New England's electricity, but the region's pipeline network must serve both residential heating demand and power plants.
Vineyard Wind will help solve both challenges. It will provide large amounts of clean energy — especially in the winter, when winds over the Atlantic Ocean blow stronger.
“We had a good time today celebrating this win, even as we work on the next step. It's very rewarding,” Mahony said. “Knowing that it's actually delivering energy, knowing that it's coming at a very good price and in the winter, when we've often struggled with pricing and reliability issues, is quite important for the energy sector and our climate goals.”
Such statements represent a sea change from the days when Gordon was trying to sell Massachusetts officials on offshore wind. Gordon spent 16 years embroiled in political controversy and litigation in efforts to build Cape Wind. He finally gave it up in 2017.
He recalled that former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, a Republican, once led a public meeting in Cape Cod to declare that his wife objected to the sight of turbines on the horizon. Business interests in Akrotiri echoed the concerns, imagining a scenario where tourists opened the shades of their hotel rooms to be greeted by the sight of turbines on the water. Other energy companies simply didn't want to see a new industry take shape, he said.
Even so, Cape Wind ultimately helped pave the way for projects like Vineyard Wind. Some Cape Wind alum works in Vineyard Wind. He also helped shape the United States' regulatory process for permitting wind projects. When Gordon first proposed construction in Nantucket Sound, there were no federal regulations for permitting an offshore wind farm.
Vineyard Wind became the first project to successfully navigate the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management's permitting process. The agency has said it hopes to complete 16 offshore wind permits by the end of Biden's current term.
“The consolation prize in my heart is that even though Cape Wind didn't make it across the finish line, we drew attention to this inexhaustible resource that we can tap into for a more sustainable energy future,” Gordon said.
People often ask Gordon if he would do it again, knowing how it all turned out.
The answer “probably depends on the day,” he said, before adding, “It's a good day and I'm happy to see this day finally happen.”
This story also appears on Energywire.
