A new survey shows that younger Americans in both political parties view Israel less favorably than older ones, results that show that the disagreement on the issue is not solely partisan.
“It's weird that it's in both places,” he says David Lazer, distinguished professor of political science and computer science at Northeastern University, and project leader. “We know what's happening in the Democratic Party, but the fact is we're seeing this beginning change in the Republican Party as well.”
Israel has been the subject of increased attention since October 7, 2023, when the Palestinian militant group Hamas launched an attack on Israel, killing approximately 1,200 civilians and taking 253 hostages. Israel's war of retaliation has displaced much of Gaza's population and killed 29,000 Gazans, according to local health authorities, who do not distinguish between civilians and fighters.
The Health Policy and Institutions Program: A 50-State Survey includes researchers from Northeastern, Harvard University, Rutgers University, and the University of Rochester. In a follow-up to the COVID States project, researchers periodically survey respondents from 50 states and the District of Columbia about attitudes and behaviors.
In its 103rd and most recent survey, researchers asked 30,460 people aged 18 and over to rate their feelings towards Jews, Muslims, Israel and Palestine, using a 'feeling thermometer' – a scale from 0 to 100 where 0 indicates feeling very unfavorable or cold. , 50 indicates that it is not particularly hot or cold, and 100 indicates that you feel very favorable or warm.
The survey was conducted from December 21 to January 29 and used the term Palestine, which is not an independent state. The Palestinian territories include Gaza and the West Bank.
Lazer and colleagues say the findings are particularly important as the large sample size allows them to distinguish between subgroups. For example, the survey includes 3,294 Americans between the ages of 18 and 24 — 1,101 of whom identified as Democrats and 676 as Republicans. In addition, respondents were assigned one of four age groups: ages 18 to 24. ages 25 to 44; ages 45 to 64, and over 65. In addition to party affiliation and age, subgroups included race, education, and religion.
Comparing generational differences in outcomes yields interesting findings.
“I think a key finding that resonates with previous research findings and some previous research is that there are both partisan and generational differences in attitudes toward Israel and Palestine,” Lazer says.
“Younger people are much more sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and less sympathetic to Israel, and we see that Republicans are more sympathetic to Israel, less sympathetic to the Palestinians,” Lazer continues. “But the two go together — meaning that younger Republicans are much less sympathetic to Israel than older Republicans.”
Indeed, the survey found that Democrats aged 18 to 24 rated Israel an average of 36/100, while Democrats aged 65 and older rated Israel 56/100, on average. Republicans aged 18 to 24 rated Israel an average of 49/100 while their counterparts over 65 rated Israel an average of 72/100.
Interest in the Israel-Hamas war has corresponded with a documented rise in anti-Semitism. last fall, less than a month after the Hamas attacks, the Anti-Defamation League mentionted that incidents of harassment, vandalism and attacks against Jews had increased by 388% over the same period last year.
Further to the generation gap, the researchers found that, in general, as individuals' views of Jews were more favorable, so were their views of Israel.
“But this relationship is much weaker for younger Americans than for older Americans,” the researchers report. “Scores of Jews and Israel are correlated for Americans 25 and older, but this is not the case for Americans between 18 and 24, with the correlation between the two thermometer scores being just 0.11.”
This generation gap did not emerge when views of Muslims and Palestine were correlated.
The Council on American-Islamic Relations as well mentionted a 182% increase in incidents of Islamophobia last fall, compared to the previous year.
“Correlations between Muslim and Palestinian thermometer values, however, remain moderately correlated at nearly identical levels for each of the four age groups,” the researchers report.
There was also a strong and positive relationship between the warmth of feelings respondents had toward Jews and toward Muslims.
“It's neither,” Lazer explains. “If you feel strongly about the Jews, you feel positively about the Muslims. Also, if you feel bad about Jews, you feel bad about Muslims.”
However, there is a partisan divide in attitudes toward Muslims.
Democrats rated their attitudes toward Muslims an average of 66/100. Republicans rated their attitudes toward Muslims an average of 48/100. By comparison, Democrats rated their feelings about Jews an average of 70/100. That was about the same as Republicans, who rated their feelings toward Jews an average of 68/100.
Party differences also emerged for Israel and Palestine scores. Republicans were much more likely to rate Israel favorably, giving it an average of 61/100, while Democrats gave Israel an average of 47/100. Democrats rated Palestine an average of 47/100. it was higher than Republicans, who rated it an average of 30/100.
Additional findings include:
- Across all demographics, respondents rate Jews higher than Israel and Muslims higher than “Palestine.”
- Respondents with more education rated both Jews and Muslims higher than those with less education.
Lazer says the research is worth repeating.
“A snapshot of public opinion can't tell you what the future holds,” notes Lazer. “In the short term, how does public opinion change with the events in Gaza? In the long run, how persistent are these generational differences? Are we seeing a shift in public opinion about the next generation as the population turns over? This will require continued monitoring of opinion.”
