The lack of snow is closely related to persistent mild weather. This winter it could end up being the hottest on record in the neighboring United States, driven by El Niño climate and human-caused climate change.
Snowfall deficits have increased to at least 1 to 2 feet this winter in western Pennsylvania and most of New York and New England. And down the eastern Great Lakes, they're even bigger.
Snowstorms are still possible in March and early April, particularly north of the Mason-Dixon line. However, the chances for significant winter storms are starting to drop sharply in the coming weeks along runway 95. Before long, the weather watch will shift focus from snow to spring thunderstorms.
Sea with below normal snowfall
With a week left in climatological winter — defined as December through February — much of the Lower 48 east of the Rockies has seen less snow than normal. Exceptions include the central plains and some other very small areas. The most significant snow deficits extend from the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes to the interior Northeast.
Northeast cities with deficits of at least one foot include:
- Binghamton, NY: Received 38.6 inches, or 23.6 inches below the year-to-date average of 62.2 inches.
- Boston: Received 9.7 inches, or 24.9 inches below the year-to-date average of 34.6 inches.
- Burlington, Vt.: Received 36.2 inches, or 23.1 inches below the year-to-date average of 59.3 inches.
- Caribou, Maine: Received 56.2 inches, or 28.5 inches below the year-to-date average of 84.7 inches.
- Pittsburgh: Received 15.3 inches, or 17.1 inches below its year-to-date average of 32.4 inches.
- Syracuse, NY: Received 34.5 inches, or 54.5 inches below the 89-inch average to date.
The stretch from Washington to Philadelphia has seen more snow than average, compared to many locations up north. Deficits in this zone are generally small and some locations even have a small surplus.
The 11.7 inches at Washington Dulles International Airport, west of DC, is the highest total among major reference sites between Richmond and New York. That's even more than Boston's total to date.
Frequent storms – especially in the mid-Atlantic – allowed some spots to benefit from snow, despite generally warmer temperatures. For example, more than 10 feet of snow has fallen so far in Canaan Valley, W.Va., well above last winter and not far from the norm.
It is the second winter in a row of dry snow in many areas of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
Although this winter was snowier, parts of the Appalachians saw deficits of up to 100 inches a year ago. Last season's pattern was set by relentless storminess in the Western United States and unusually dry weather in the East. Large snowfall deficits increased in the Northeast and reached unprecedented levels in some locations.
If there is no more snow this season, the 9.8 inches in New York's Central Park over the past two winters would fall as the least snowy stretch of two seasons in records dating back to 1869. Last winter's 2.3 inches in Central Park had their lowest single-season record total. The lowest two-season total is 15.5 inches, in the winters of 1996-97 and 1997-98.
Normally snowy Syracuse, which averages about 10 feet per winter, has seen below-average snowfall in each of the past six winters by about 40 inches or more.
in Boston, five of the last six winters experienced below average snowfall. Like New York, Boston is on pace for the snowiest consecutive winters on record. Just 22.1 inches have fallen, compared to the two-season record low of 34.8 inches from the winters of 1979-80 and 1980-81.
After a quick cold snap coming in this weekend, the weather will turn spring-like in the Northeast until at least early March. Some snow is in the forecast, although such long-range forecasts are subject to change.
Recent simulations from the European weather model suggest little to no snow over Interstate 95 until at least March 1, although a few inches could fall in the mountains.
The average last accumulated snowfall of the winter is February 26 in Washington, March 12 in New York, and March 25 in Boston. Inland locations at similar latitudes can see snow pile up somewhat deeper by spring.
