Midterm elections—those that take place near the midpoint of a president's four-year term in the United States—are typically viewed by policymakers as a referendum on the president's party. If citizens approve of the job the president is doing, his party usually does well. If not, it doesn't.
But this year, with a veritable bingo card of polarizing issues on the table, could the midterms be seen as a litmus test for voter ethics?
As the US marches steadily toward Nov. 8, high-profile gun violence makes headlines again and again, a congressional committee is investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack that may well amount to a criminal conspiracy, states are restricting or banning access on abortion and hate Crime is soaring, while inflation is at its highest point in decades.
Which of these issues will matter most to voters? It's likely to be the impact on their wallets.
“Economic considerations are rarely eclipsed as a top priority for voters in elections,” he says Kostas Panagopoulos, professor of political science at Northeastern University. “That's not to say Jan. 6 won't be big on voters' minds, but generally speaking, I don't expect anything to have as strong an influence in November as gas prices, inflation or other economic issues. ”
His assessment is confirmed in recent polls. ONE Quinnipiac Poll Last month, 34 percent of all voters ranked inflation as the most pressing issue facing the country today. Voters ranked gun violence second (12 percent). No other issue reached double digits.
Separately, however, the priorities of Democrats and Republicans are shifting. The poll shows that among Republicans, inflation (48 percent) ranks first, followed by immigration (16 percent) with no other issue reaching double digits.
Among Democrats, gun violence (22 percent) ranks first, followed by abortion (14 percent), inflation (14 percent), election laws (12 percent) and climate change (11 percent a hundred).
And among independents, inflation (41 percent) ranks first with no other issue reaching double digits.
Recent Gallup poll it also shows that the economy will weigh heavily on voters' minds at the polls. According to Gallup, 85 percent of US adults say the economy is extremely important (53 percent) or very important (32 percent) to their vote. But gun violence isn't far behind: According to the same poll, 80 percent of U.S. adults say the issue is extremely important (52 percent) or very important (28 percent) to their vote.
However, unless voters are considering a referendum question or proposition, they rarely vote on a single issue. In November, voters will have to choose candidates whose platforms represent a spectrum of positions on these issues. This means that voters will have to make multidimensional choices, weighing their various values against each other to choose a single candidate.
With so much on the line, there is a correctly way to make these exchanges?
“That's a thorny philosophical question—but I guess I'm a philosopher,” he says Rory Smead, associate professor of philosophy at Northeastern. There can be right and wrong choices, he says, but each person's assessment will depend on their own guiding principles. In other words, there is no one answer, just answers that align with voters' worldviews.
A utilitarian, for example, might weigh strong social programs over his own financial gain—and choose a candidate who supports expanding Medicare. Another voter might care about long-term constitutional or legal changes and vote for the candidate who is most vocal about Supreme Court nominees.
“But politics is a noisy process,” says Smead, who is also the Ronald L. and Linda A. Rossetti Professor of the Humanities at Northeastern. “Even if a candidate wants to do something and their party has the power, they can't always do it.”
On the best day, voting requires an “incredibly difficult calculation, even for people who actually have the time to work through these issues.”
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