In Boston, where records stretch back to 1936, Saturday's storm tied the all-time snowfall record, with 23.6 inches accumulated. In recent decades, such extreme snowfalls have been unusually common: 15 of the 30 largest one-day snowfalls have occurred since 2000.
Islip, home of the National Weather Service that covers New York City and surrounding counties, was just 0.2 inches shy of its record for the most snow in one day. At the Islip station, which has been collecting data since 1963, four of the five largest 24-hour snowfalls have occurred since 2010. The fifth was in 2006.
Several major cities in the Northeast, all with record keeping stretching back many decades, have seen peak or near peak one-day snowfall in recent years:
- Providence, RI, set its record on Saturday
- Albany, NY, saw its third largest storm of 2020, 3 inches shy of record
- Binghamton, NY, set its record in 2017
- New York's Central Park set its record in 2016
- Baltimore set its record in 2016
- Newark saw its second largest storm of 2016, coming within 2 inches of the record
- Virginia's Dulles Airport saw second-largest storm of 2016, 0.2 inches short of record
- Portland, Maine saw its second largest storm of 2015, 0.1 inches short of its record
- Bridgeport, Conn., set its record in 2013
- Hartford, Conn., set its record in 2011
- Philadelphia saw its second largest storm of 2009, 4 inches shy of record
Single-day records aren't the only objective way to quantify the incredible winter weather activity of recent years. A measurement known as the Northeast snow impact scale (NESIS), which calculates population weights of winter storm snowfall, can be used to compare the social stress caused by Northeast winters. Analysis NESIS data show that 2008-2018 saw more than three times as many winter storms as any other decade since at least 1958-1968.
Scientists say the recent decade's surge in Northeast winter storms is likely linked to climate change.
A study found a strong link between Arctic warming episodes and severe winter weather events in the Northeast. Arctic warming episodes can destabilize the polar vortex, or a ring of fast winds encircling the upper latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that keeps cold Arctic air away. When the vortex pinches, stretches, or shifts, it can allow frigid Arctic air to spill south into the United States.
“When Arctic temperatures are cold, snowfall is less likely [in the Northeast]”, wrote Judah Cohen, author of the study and director of seasonal forecasting at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, in an email. “The chance of snowfall increases as the Arctic warms and increases higher when the Arctic is warmer.”
With the Arctic warming twice as fast as other parts of the world, Cohen said these polar outbreaks are likely to be more frequent and potentially bring more winter storms south to the northeastern United States.
While many scientists agree that these polar vortex disturbances are often associated with severe northeast winter weather, Cohen says linking human-caused climate change to these disturbances, as he did, is still somewhat controversial.
Less controversial is the role of ocean warming. The heat content of the world's oceans is steadily increasing, with each decade warmer than the last. The Gulf of Maine takes one of the top spots – warming faster than 96 percent of the world's oceans. In the fall of 2021, inlet water temperatures were the highest on record.
“This blizzard was caused by a combination of favorable weather conditions and a warmer Atlantic, the latter of which is an indication of global warming and likely intensified the storm above and beyond what it would have been,” Mankin wrote.
As sea surface temperatures warm, the air above becomes warmer. Warmer air allows more water to enter the vapor phase in the atmosphere, which can fuel winter storms and increase snowfall.
“It may seem counterintuitive to see heavier snowfall in a warming climate,” Jennifer Francis, associate director of the Woodwell Climate Research Center, wrote in an email. But “with warming also comes an increase in water vapor in the atmosphere to feed storms with moisture and energy.”
He said warming oceans may also help fuel the storms responsible for the Northeast snow. Because oceans cool much more slowly than land, bursts of cold air—perhaps from the Arctic—can cause dramatic temperature gradients from land to sea. This temperature gradient can create more hot air-cold air collisions and they help strengthen storms.
“Nowhere is this more evident than along the U.S. Atlantic coast, where unusually warm ocean temperatures collide with frigid Arctic air masses, setting the stage for powerful centuries,” Francis wrote.
