Hours after Gabon's election officials said President Ali Bongo Odiba had won a third term, military personnel appeared on state television to announce the takeover. The election results were annulled. The borders would be closed. And Bongo would be placed under house arrest, while his son, along with six others, would be investigated for high treason.
It's a scene that plays out over and over again. Gabon is the ninth nation in West/Central Africa to experience a coup in recent years, along with Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger and Tunisia.
But what led to this rash of military acquisitions?
What those countries have in common is their origins, said William Miles, a political science professor at Northeastern University whose areas of expertise include West African politics and postcolonial identity. They are former French colonies that modeled their new government after France, but eventually fell victim to favoritism and corruption.
This is happening in Gabon. The oil-rich nation's recent elections have been plagued by allegations of corruption. Bongo was declared the winner with more than two-thirds of the vote, extending his family's power in Gabon. Bongo became president in 2009 on the back of his father who was elected in 1967. Meanwhile, Afrobarometer, a pan-African research network, found in 2021 that the perception of corruption in the impoverished nation was more widespread there than in any of the other countries they assessed.
The build-up of tension led to the military coups today, Miles said. He himself experienced a coup at the end of July while conducting research in Niger. While there, the military overthrew the government, prompting him to flee his post before he was found evacuated back to US
The images viewers see on TV of the junta – the group taking over the country – gathering around a platform and declaring their intentions are reminiscent of what Miles saw in Niger. And already, as in Niger, a military leader has been declared a transitional leader.
“Gabon joins Niger and Mali and Burkina Faso and Guinea in saying that we too have been taken advantage of by France and that we are no longer going to conform to the French/Western model of governance,” Miles said. “Do you know the expression for jumping jack? This is more of a convoy — different military regimes of the former French West Africa.'
Those nations modeled their government after France's fifth republic, Miles said, with an elected president and multiparty democracy. But while France has a liberal government that protects the rights of the people, many of its former colonies have fallen into what Miles describes as an illiberal or purely electoral democracy where elections are held but not the essence of democracy.
“There are elections and you have different parties, but often there is one party that pays the so-called opposition to be in their pocket,” Miles said. “Under these circumstances, there is a grievance to be exploited in the name of the people.”
That explains why Gabonese locals were celebrating the takeover, as seen in videos posted on social media on Wednesday of residents dancing in the streets and cheering after the takeover.
“We in the West have generally benefited from the material prosperity that has accompanied liberal democracy,” Miles said. “In Africa, the fruits of democracy have not been enjoyed by the vast majority of people. If you don't have development accompanying a particular political system, then people will not be happy and sooner or later there will be a revolt – not by the people but by some other institution in its name.” That means the armed forces.
But while the overthrow of the government may be positively received by Gabonese citizens now, Miles said military regimes often end up becoming oppressive in the long run and do not bring the prosperity people expect.
Miles saw this first hand when he went to Niger as a Peace Corps volunteer in the 1970s and the country was under what he described as a “benevolent dictatorship”. Niger had suffered drought and famine, and government officials took food aid from the West on their own.
“Once the military takes power, people are afraid to speak out against it,” he said. “I always take these expressions of 'popular support' with a grain of salt because people still believe they should be the ones who choose their leaders. None of these military coups have been able to deliver the kind of economic growth the people want and deserve. I don't think that, whether it's Niger or Gabon, these military leaders are going to make a noticeable difference to the quality of life.”
A new government means that other bad actors can invade these countries, gaining access to natural resources for their own benefit or engaging in terrorist activity, while the new regime is distracted by strengthening its power and defending itself from foreign operations.
“Niger is a major supplier of uranium,” Miles said. “Now imagine if the Russians had access to that uranium, what that would mean from a strategic military and international vantage point. This can shake up the international chessboard in West Africa if more nations fall under Russian influence.”
These coups have ramifications both nationally and internationally. The African Union, the United Nations and other Western nations, including the United States, have already condemned the takeover. But Miles urged others to monitor the situation.
“Africa has usually been the most neglected region in regional studies,” he said. “We need to pay attention, not only because of the implications for US foreign relations, but because it is the African population in general that is hurt the most. And we have to be sensitive to that population.”
Erin Kayata is a reporter for Northeastern Global News. Email her at e.kayata@northeastern.edu. Follow her on Twitter @erin_kayata.
