In April 2019, 11,000 acres of the New Jersey Pine Barrens burnt after dry and windy conditions came back a seemingly innocent fire in an inferno.
The fire, which sent clouds of orange-tinged smoke as far north as New Yorkers could smell sent a powerful reminder of the ecosystem's vulnerability in a warming world — a reality many in the Northeast are only recently coming to terms with. The Pinelands National Preserve, as its website notes, is “the largest forested area on the east coast between Maine and the Florida Everglades.”
In September, many East Coast residents were shocked by the milky skies above them, after wildfires on the West Coast sent smoke thousands of miles across the country.
The smoke remained at an altitude of 10,000 to 20,000 feet, keeping those on the ground safe from particulate pollution the people of the West Coast suffered — for now.
But as climate change raises temperatures and conditions become drier in the region's heavily forested areas, the potential for climate-induced wildfires like the one now dominating West Coast headlines may soon play out closer for those in the Northeast, where warming is changing its seasonality and fire conditions that have long shaped local ecosystems.
“It's easy in the Northeast to think we have nothing to worry about, but it's important to remember that these things can happen here,” said Jeff Lougee, director of management and ecological stewardship at The Nature Conservancy of New. Hampshire.
In the context of the climate crisis, he said: “There are many unknowns.”
According to the Northeast-Midwest State Foresters Alliance, forests make up more than 40 percent of the land in the northeastern United States. In addition to contributing to clean air and water in the area, these forests provide substantial economic benefits to the area, just by harvesting and processing timber providing over half a million jobs and more than $20 billion in income.
The wetter climate in the Northeast has historically made wildfires less common than on the West Coast, where rising temperatures combined with dry conditions and droughts can turn vast tracts of forest into boxes — like the recent wildfires desolation California, Oregon and Washington have been painfully clear.
However, fire is not uncommon in northeastern forest ecosystems.
“Fire is a small but important part of our landscape,” said Erin Lane of the USDA's Northeast Climate Hub and North Atlantic Fire Science Exchange, which promotes communication between regional scientists and fire managers.
Along with shaping some pockets of the area, such as its pine forests, Lane said, “Fire can and is used as a tool for wildlife management, agricultural production, ecosystem restoration and timber management.”
But as climate change makes the Northeast's climate generally warmer and wetter, with rain coming in heavier and more sporadic periods, it's also making the region's forests more drought-prone in the process, setting the stage for more intense deforestation. fires.
“We could definitely experience western-style fires on a small scale,” said Scott Sabo, a ranger for the Adirondack Park-based New York State Department of Environmental Conservation. amid record summer heatfires could have broken out this summer or last summer, he said, adding, “All you need is for that weather window to line up.”
Fuel accumulation could contribute to future fire intensity. In the short term, an ecosystem like the New Jersey Pine Barrens may experience fewer of its more typical small fires, while a longer and wetter growing season could lead to greater forest productivity, said Nicholas Skowronski, research forester at the US Forest. Service. Over time, this could mean building up more fuel to fuel even bigger fires when the right conditions arise.
“The worst case scenario in the pines is a very difficult to control wildfire that can affect people and their lives and the homes that are there,” Lougee said, bringing home for some northeastern communities the grim reality that is already being felt in other parts of the country. .
With more fuel accumulating in Northeast forests, the threat posed by a wildfire left unattended by inexperienced or careless campers — an especially acute concern during the Covid-19 pandemic, with Americans visit national parks at record rates—could also grow exponentially.
Along with creating new threats to nearby communities, the changing fire environment could alter the composition of some of the Northeast's most remarkable landscapes, where species are adapted to a more consistent and small-scale fire regime.
Contrary to the popular perception of fire as a largely destructive force, “in many areas of the East Coast, wildfires are not a bad thing,” Skowronski said. Especially in pine ecosystems like the New Jersey Pine Barrens, smaller and more regular fires can help sustain and regenerate fire-dependent species. “These systems have evolved with fire,” Skowronski said, making it part of the life cycle for some forests.
As the regional climate shifts in places like the New Jersey Pine Barrens, species better adapted to a warmer, wetter climate could displace more fire-adapted species like pine, which are common in the ecosystem's historic climate. “In the long run, we may actually lose these systems that are very unique to our region,” Skowronski said.
In upstate New York, John Sheehan at the Adirondack Council, a nonprofit environmental organization dedicated to preserving the Adirondack Park, shares similar concerns.
“Just a few seasons of drought or a change in long-term climate in the northwest part of the park could significantly change this habitat and make it much more fire-hungry,” said Sheehan, the council's director of communications.
A warming climate could lead to the decline of forest species common in cooler environments such as red spruce and balsam fir. That would leave more of the park, the largest publicly protected area in the contiguous United States, covered by Appalachian's more flammable mixed hardwood forest, Sheehan said.
For its part, the Adirondack Council is working with everyone from state and federal officials to scientists and local residents, Sheehan said, “to prevent climate change from becoming the park's enemy.”
Looking ahead, some Northeast policymakers are already enacting new measures for future wildfire mitigation.
In October 2019, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order which included measures to reduce the risk of fires in state forests. And just last month, New Hampshire Gov. Christopher T. Sununu forbidden open fires and smoking near forested areas due to the threat of wildfires.
Along with New York, New Hampshire is also part of the Northeast Compact's Northeastern Forest Fire Protection Committee, a body of states, counties, cities and federal agencies that has worked since its inception in 1949 to promote and help coordinate effective regional efforts to prevent and control forest fires.
“It's important for us to just continue to invest in preparedness,” Lougee said, citing the National Fire Protection Association's volunteer Firewise USA programwhich provides a framework to help residents organize around protecting their homes from the threat of fire.
He suggested that tree removal, combined with prescribed or controlled burns—already known fire mitigation tools—could also help reduce the fuel load to limit future fire intensity.
Ilana Cohen
Reporter, New York
Ilana Cohen is a proud New Yorker and rising junior at Harvard University studying philosophy and social studies. As a freshman in college, she helped restart the fossil fuel divestment campaign on Harvard's campus and currently serves as Associate Managing Editor of the Harvard Political Review, for which she has written and edited many articles on climate and environmental issues. As a freelance journalist, Ilana has contributed to The Nation, The Guardian, The New York Daily News, WBUR, Gotham Gazette, The Harvard Crimson and City Limits.
